And how he proved the media dead wrong
3 minutes
Jul 31, 2025
Meet "Theo4”, the mysterious French trader who made $82,320,102 betting on Trump to win the election.
Here is the story of how it went down:
Something was off
In the weeks before the election, most polling averages showed a tie between Trump and Kamala.
Many political experts were calling it "too close to call."
But on Polymarket, something weird was happening:
Trump was trading around 65% to win.
Not a huge edge, but higher than what most of the models were predicting.
Why was Trump so far ahead on Polymarket?
Theories swirled online:
Were rich Republicans trying to make it seem like Trump was ahead?
Were right-wing crypto bettors overvaluing Trump?
Was there a secret foreign actor manipulating the market?
People started digging through public Polymarket data, trying to uncover who was betting millions on Trump.
After some digging, reporters managed to get ahold of the trader.
In interviews, he revealed that he was not a right-wing American at all, but French.
And also insisted he was making a pure financial bet, not trading on his politics.
they still didn’t believe him
But the media were skeptical, and accused Fredi of distorting the ‘true’ odds, which were closer to 50-50.
The media chose to push a narrative that French “dumb money” was skewing Polymarket’s odds towards Trump.
We all know what happened next.
Trump won, and our mysterious French whale walked into Polymarket history with over $82m.
But the story doesn’t end there.
After the election Fredi gave another interview to the press.
They wanted to know how he found the courage to bet so heavily.
That’s when he dropped the bomb:
Fredi commissioned his own polls.
He had a hunch:
"shy Trump voters" weren't showing up in traditional polls.
So he did something unprecedented, he hired YouGov to run custom polling in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
And he used a slightly different method.
Instead of asking people who they were voting for, he asked who they thought their neighbors were voting for.
The results showed a much stronger swing towards Trump than other polling methods.
So he bet BIG
Most traders would have been satisfied with a small win.
Not Fredi.
After seeing his custom poll results, he liquidated virtually everything – stocks, bonds, savings – to raise $80 million.
He spread it across 11 different accounts and bet it all on Trump.
"I had conviction," he told The Free Press, "so I bet a lot of money."
Fredi didn't get lucky.
He identified a flaw in how everyone else was processing information.
While the media was screaming about "Polymarket voodoo” Theo was quietly developing an edge and betting big.
The $82 million wasn't a random windfall: it was payment for being right when everyone else was wrong.
Now it's your turn
Right now, as you read this, there are thousands of active markets on Polymarket.
News, sports, culture, tech.
And most of these are not nearly as large and competitive as the US Presidential election.
Can you find one or two where you are a tiny bit smarter than the crowd?
Sign up for Polymarket today and make money by betting against the crowd.